Cillian Murphy
Matt Winkelmeyer/Getty Images
A jam-packed weekend of last-gasp Oscar campaigning — the film academy’s final voting begins Feb. 22 and closes Feb. 27 — ended Saturday night with the first-ever major awards ceremony. It started at the 30th SAG Awards. Streaming on Netflix. But will Saturday night’s results actually provide a reliable clue as to what will happen at the 96th Oscar Awards, two weeks from Sunday night?
I would argue that it probably is.
SAG Award winners are determined by the approximately 160,000 members of SAG-AFTRA, the world’s largest acting union, while Oscar winners are determined by the approximately 9,500 voting members of the Motion Picture Academy. Of those, 86 percent are Motion Picture Academy voters. do not have This suggests that the overlap is purely coincidental.
But the fact that SAG-AFTRA members voted for Best Actor in a Movie is quite a statement. Cillian Murphy for oppenheimer that’s all Paul Giamatti for holdovers — to Murphy, who is Irish, rather than Giamatti, who is American, given that the vast majority of SAG-AFTRA members are American (25 percent of Academy members are currently based outside the United States).Additionally, Giamatti is similar in every way to his average SAG-AFTRA voter, which may explain why he has been elected previously. three SAG Award for Individual Performance (Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture in 2005) cinderella man Best Actor in a TV Movie/Mini-Series 2008 john adams And in 2012 too big to fail) and another as part of the winning ensemble (2004) Landscape).
In other words, even if Murphy can beat Giamatti at SAG-AFTRA (following his BAFTA win for Best Actor), it’s hard to imagine he can’t/won’t win at the Academy.
For a long time, the Best Actress race seemed like a tale of two “stones.” poor thing‘ emma stone and Murderers of the Flower Moon‘s lily gladstone. Stone had recently won a BAFTA, but Gladstone hadn’t even been nominated, so Gladstone desperately needed a SAG Award to give the impression that he was at least still in the thick of it. And she earned it, making her history in the process. First Native American to win a SAG Award for individual performance.
But here comes the problem. In recent years, when SAG-AFTRA and the Academy differed in their selection of actors, the more diverse and populist guilds often rewarded people of color while the Academy did not.A recent example is the SAG Award. chadwick boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom But the Oscars are going to go anthony hopkins for fatherSAG Award viola davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom But the Oscars are going to go Frances McDormand for nomadlandSAG Award denzel washington for fence But the Oscars are going to go casey affleck for manchester by the seaSAG Award Idris Elba for beast of no nation But the Oscars are going to go Mark Rylance for bridge of spies And the SAG Award viola davis for help But the Oscars are going to go meryl streep for iron lady.
And yet, for the past two years, the SAG Awards and the Oscars have selected the exact same four winners each year, including two people of color. So perhaps the gap is closing?
There’s also a wild card at the Oscars. At the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, Stone and Gladstone didn’t have to compete with each other. And at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards, Stone and Gladstone didn’t have to compete. someone else who are they with the current Competing on the Oscar ballot: Stars of the Best Picture Oscar nominees structure of overturning, Sandra Hüller. She’s heard an undeniable level of enthusiasm for Hüller from Academy members, so it’s not clear whether she’s more likely to draw votes from Stone or Gladstone, or perhaps even more than both. I wondered. It would be a massive and unexpected upset, but it would not be an unprecedented upset. three Some people have won an acting Oscar without winning a Critics Choice Award, Golden Globe Award, BAFTA Award, or SAG Award (Marcia Gay Harden Winner of Best Supporting Actress of the 2000s pollock, denzel washington He won the Best Actor Award in 2001. training day and adrien brody He won the Best Actor Award in 2002. pianist).
When it comes to the Best Supporting Actor category at the Oscars, it seems like we’re on lockdown. SAG-AFTRA’s Best Supporting Actor Award Robert Downey Jr. for oppenheimer And for Best Supporting Actress, daveen joy randolph for holdoversAs with any major awards show, there’s literally no reason to predict anyone else will win on March 10th.
The same is almost certainly true oppenheimer After winning the SAG Award for Best Picture, it also won Best Picture in the Oscar race. american fiction, barbie and Murderers of the Flower Moonwas also nominated for the best Oscar. the color purple,it’s not.To be clear, the best cast at the SAG Awards is do not have It has a great track record that predicts it will win the Academy Award for Best Picture – however, upset This happens in the latter case. In fact, virtually every major Best Picture Oscar upset started with a SAG Award for Best Cast. Shakespeare in love that’s all private ryan, crash that’s all Brokeback Mountain, Spotlight that’s all ghost and parasite that’s all 1917. (ghost and 1917 It was also not nominated for the SAG Award for Best Cast. ) oppenheimer Winning all the top precursor awards leading up to the SAG Award, as well as the Best Cast SAG Award, the film is firmly in pole position at the top of the Oscars.
Anyway, the roller coaster continues on Sunday with Film Independent’s Spirit Awards during the day and the Producers Guild of America’s PGA Awards at night. Rest easy, Oscar watchers, we haven’t reached the finish line yet!
